I recently met Deputies Brendan Smith and Breathnach coming out the doors of Stormont. I thought they were taking over but they were visiting to do some cross-Border work and we had a quick chat about the threats. For me, the major threat is uncertainty. There is no doubt that while it is my job as finance Minister to put my best foot forward in order to continue the work of attracting investment and pushing forward the economy - and giving my colleagues the fiscal measures and firepower to do so - this period of uncertainty is affecting investment decisions in Belfast, Derry and rural areas, as we speak. That is understandable because if one does not know what the future holds, one will be reluctant to make further investment, build another factory, install new plant, invest in new equipment or sign a deal to buy some of the buildings in Belfast which are emerging from administration. Uncertainty has a chilling and cooling effect on the economy.
The two big economic effects of the four freedoms are in the areas of the movement of goods and the movement of labour. People appreciate and understand the position regarding the movement of goods.
I believe we must maintain access to the Single Market in the time ahead, notwithstanding other views on that, and any reduction in that will be damaging to us.
I refer to the third point on the freedom of movement of labour. I met the Brexit Minister. Senator Reilly said that no one wants a hard Brexit or exit, but when speaking about a hard exit on Sunday, the only light Boris Johnson would let in was the wonderful Erasmus programme, which is brilliant. He said they might contribute to that but that for everything else there would be no contribution to the European Union. That means we would be cut off from what I referred to earlier as the bounty. While the Senator and I, the Taoiseach, the British Secretary of State, Mr. Hammond, and Mrs. May have stated at times that no one wants a hard Border, the actions they are taking, and I presume Boris Johnson has as much clout in this as David Davis, Liam Fox or Mr. Hammond, with the Prime Minister having the final say, and the shapes they are throwing, so to speak, appear to signal there will be a hard Brexit or exit.
I have asked Mr. Davis, the Brexit Minister, if that happens, what will happen to the Romanians who live in my constituency in south Belfast and what will happen to the Polish people, the Estonians, who have a strong community in Belfast, and the Bulgarians. I asked him if he will give a guarantee that they can stay, and he would not give that guarantee. Those people are contributing to the diversity of Belfast, and as the Senator knows, the more diversity in Belfast, the better. If anything, there is too much orange and green in Belfast, so having all these other cultures and nationalities helps build and unite Belfast. It is a priority for me, and I know it will be for the Taoiseach as well, that we get a guarantee that, for example, a young Polish couple living in east or west Belfast whose children attend the local school have to be allowed stay. They cannot allow our neighbours to be bargaining chips in this Brexit game of chess being played by the British Government. Those are my three points: the uncertainty, the movement of goods and the movement of labour.
The Senator asked about the peace process. We need to continue the PEACE programme. When I was a young councillor in Belfast, the first issue that brought me and Unionist councillors together at a time of terrible hurt, wounding and loss was the EU PEACE programme when we had to sit across a table from each other. What unites people is economics and jobs. That brought people together and the impact it has had across our communities, especially in the Border regions, is significant. We cannot lose that in the time ahead.
In terms of a threat to the peace process, the peace process is robust. It will be challenged and there are times when we consider parts of it to be fragile. While the peace process will endure and thrive in the time ahead, the European role in that cannot be underestimated. For me, that is not just the programmes or the money but the fact that Europe has said this is an experiment, for all its flaws, which was started after the horror of two world wars. For all its flaws and the criticism we might make of the EU, it was founded on the idea that jaw-jaw was better than war-war. Nowhere post the Second World War was that more evident than in the peace process in the North, which it helped in acting as a midwife. We need that EU presence to continue. To be divorced from that would be a calamitous setback for all the efforts around reconciliation, from which we have moved on. That is the answer to that question.
Senator Reilly spoke about the mitigation measures. Every day we are working to drive through to people the negative consequences of Brexit and to keep people's focus on building the peace, reconciliation and the economy. I hope to unveil in the new year the biggest ever capital investment programme in our lifetime. I say to people that they should keep their heads up, that we will get through this, that it is important that people have confidence and that we continue to invest in jobs and in the economy because the creation of a strong economic base is the greatest concrete of the peace process.
I arrived in Brussels on a Tuesday night dismayed about our prospects of having a special status in the EU after Brexit, but I left buoyed up 24 hours later having met Commissioner Creu briefly and many of the Ministers for Europe, and by the belief that Europe understands that Ireland and the North of Ireland is a special case and it does not want us to be forced out on the same terms as the British and the Welsh in particular want for themselves. Most of my work every day is focused on building the economy and a shared and prosperous society. We have had to double down on that work because of the challenges of Brexit.
