John Brady
Question:2. Deputy John Brady asked the Taoiseach the estimated number of persons aged 66 years of age and over who will be residing in the State in each of the next ten years. [33452/18]
View answerTuesday, 24 July 2018
Questions (2)
Written answers
The Central Statistics Office published the Population and Labour Force Projections for 2017 to 2051 in June this year. The population projections start with the base population from the 2016 Census of Population and involve assumptions about mortality, migration and fertility, as follows:
Mortality Assumption
The long-term rate of improvement in life expectancy is assumed to be 1.5% per annum. This will result in life expectancy rising from 79.3 years for males in 2015 to 85.6 years in 2051 and from 83.3 to 88.3 years for women over the same period.
Migration Assumptions
M1: Positive net inward migration of 30,000 persons per annum to 2051.
M2: Positive net inward migration of 20,000 persons per annum to 2051.
M3: Positive net inward migration of 10,000 persons per annum to 2051.
Fertility Assumptions
F1: Total fertility rate to remain at the 2016 level of 1.8 for the lifetime of the projections.
F2: Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.8 to 1.6 by 2031 and to remain constant thereafter to 2051.
The fertility assumptions do not affect the projections of the population aged 66 and over in the next ten years. Accordingly, the following table shows the projected numbers of persons aged 66 and over for each of the three migration assumptions M1, M2 and M3.
Projected Population aged 66 and over from 2019 to 2028, by Criteria for Projection and Year '000
|
Year |
M1 |
M2 |
M3 |
|
2019 |
652.0 |
650.9 |
649.7 |
|
2020 |
673.8 |
672.3 |
670.9 |
|
2021 |
697.0 |
695.1 |
693.3 |
|
2022 |
720.0 |
717.8 |
715.6 |
|
2023 |
743.4 |
740.8 |
738.3 |
|
2024 |
767.3 |
764.2 |
761.4 |
|
2025 |
792.3 |
788.7 |
785.6 |
|
2026 |
817.0 |
812.9 |
809.5 |
|
2027 |
843.1 |
838.5 |
834.8 |
|
2028 |
868.1 |
863.1 |
858.9 |