The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has published its second iteration analysis on the uncertainties in Budget 2024 costings 'Assessing the Uncertainty of Budget 2024 Costings: A Scorecard Approach'

PBO Publication 5 of 2024 - Assessing the Uncertainty of Budget 2024 Costings: A Scorecard Approach

Key insights: 

1. Predictive Nature of Policy Costings: The report highlights the inherent uncertainties in budgetary costings due to their predictive nature and reliance on incomplete data. 
2. Categorisation of Uncertainty: The PBO assesses budget policy costings under three categories - data, behavioural, and modelling – to evaluate uncertainty levels. 
3. Lack of Detailed Information and Framework: The report highlights the limited information on budgetary costings. There is a notable absence of detailed data about policy costings drivers, emphasizing the need for a systematic and transparent framework. 
4. Recommendation for Enhanced Transparency: The report suggests publishing more comprehensive information on methodologies, data sources, and uncertainties. It also advocates for multiannual costings and assessments of macroeconomic and behavioural impacts. 
5. Call for Retrospective Assessment: The PBO recommends that Government conduct systematic retrospective assessments of budgetary costings, especially for significant measures.

Conclusion

The PBO’s report calls for greater transparency and detailed information on budgetary costings to improve parliamentary scrutiny.

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