The reference to 56,000 jobs mentioned by the Deputy is contained in the recent Forfás report Shaping Our Future: A strategy for Enterprise in Ireland in the 21st Century. This states:
Forfás data in 1995 indicated that some 673 manufacturing firms employing more than 56,000 people would be sensitive to a disimprovement in competitiveness against UK competitors. These firms received support under the Market Development Fund during the previous currency crisis or have 30 per cent or more of their exports going to the UK.
The report goes on to point out that the importance of the UK market must be balanced against the wider benefits of economic and monetary union.
I am aware of the concerns of firms with a high exposure to competition from UK producers, including in the UK market. However it must be recognised that the future prospects for these firms, and for the people they employ, depend upon a range of factors in addition to their competitiveness vis-à vis their UK counterparts. This holds true whether or not the UK stays outside the single currency area and Ireland joins.
The range of factors to be considered includes, in addition to the UK decision on economic and monetary union, the overall strength of the Irish economy (including our competitive position relative to the UK) when stage 3 of economic and monetary union comes into being; the level of interest rates in Ireland as compared with the UK; the performance of sterling: and the extent of diversification of these firms to other markets. The arrangements to be put in place at EU level to regulate the relationship between the euro and the currencies of member states not participating in the economic and monetary union from the outset are also of importance. This relationship is of concern to all member states and the matter has been under discussion at EU level over the past few months, including at recent meetings of the Ecofin Council. As President of Ecofin over the next six months I look forward to making further substantial progress, with a view to presenting, if possible, conclusions to the European Council in Dublin in December.
In addition, I would point out that the UK Government has never said the UK will not participate in economic and monetary union. Rather it has indicated that the UK will not do so in 1997, but that if economic and monetary union commences at a later date, a decision on UK participation will be made closer to that time. The agreed commencement date for economic and monetary union is now 1 January 1999. As the Forfás report says:
The best policy approach, at this point, is for Ireland to take whatever measures are necessary to be fully prepared to join the European Monetary Union when the time comes.
In this context the Deputy will be aware that I have commissioned, on behalf of the Government, an in-depth study by the ESRI of the likely economic implications of economic and monetary union for Ireland. The study will assist us to deepen our understanding of how the Irish economy interfaces with its trading partners. By having more detailed information, we will be better prepared to plan our national policies with a view to economic and monetary union — both in preparation for it and in order to participate successfully in it. The study is due for completion by the end of this month and its findings will be made public.